By Wayne Heming
A crushing Origin statistic has turned up the heat on both Queensland and NSW coaches to win game one of the interstate series at Adelaide Oval on Wednesday night.
There have been 41 series between the two states since the best-of-three concept was introduced in 1982 but one particular statistic is so glaring, it can’t be ignored.
Win game one, and the chances are, you win the series.
It’s happened 31 times since 1982, the state which wins the opening game goes on to win the series.
That’s almost a 75 percent conversion rate and a big reason why Wednesday night’s Adelaide Oval clash promises to be a brutal, grueling 80-minute battle with players from both sides prepared to put their bodies on the line to win at any price.
Queensland won the very first Origin series in 1982 after dropping the first game.
But it doesn’t happen too often.
In fact, Origin stats show it has only happened nine times since then in 1987, 1994, 2002, when the third game ended in a 10-all draw but Queensland retained the title, 2005-06, 2008, 2013, 2017, and the last time in 2019.
Queensland though has managed to come back from 0-1 and win the series seven times while NSW has only been able to pull it off three times.
Winning the first game doesn’t guarantee you the series.
But it takes a lot of pressure off the coach and the players and puts all the heat and media spotlight onto the losers.
By all reports, Adelaide Oval will not be sold out on the big night.
It will mean both Origin games the city has hosted – an Origin was played there in 2020 — will have been played in front of non-sell-out crowds.
A crowd of 25,218 watch the 2020 Origin game won by Queensland because of Covid restrictions.
Queensland captain Daly Cherry Evans will be looking to repeat that performance in his 20th Origin game for Queensland which will earn him entry into the exclusive FOGS Dick Turner club which has 31 members.
Exciting Brisbane Broncos fullback Reece Walsh is the only rookie in the Maroons team which is missing a few familiar names including Josh Papalii (retired) and Newcastle teammates Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai.
